[sustran] Re: [[sustran] Ridership predictions, urban rail transit]

[Kerry Wood]

Dear Alan

So far as I remember, this report needs to be approached with caution.

I think one of the biases was to use the highest estimate of ridership, not the
one that was current at the time of  commitment to the scheme as it was built.

I also seem to remember that transit costs as presented were frigteningly high,
but in fact look tame when road transport costs are presented in the same way.

Kerry Wood



Lloyd Wright wrote:

> Dear Alan,
>
> I think the one of the definitive articles on the long-history of
> over-estimating rail passenger demand is "A Desire Name Streetcar: Fantasy and
> Fact in Rail Transit Planning" by Don Pickrell of the Volpe Center.  The
> article appears in Spring 1992 edition of the Journal of the American Planning
> Association.
>
> Lloyd Wright
>
> Alan P Howes <howes at emirates.net.ae> wrote:
> Hi everyone -
>
> Can anyone point me to a reference on predicted vs. actual ridership
> for new urban rail transit systems? (or better still qute some
> examples). I saw something in a mag. recently saying that quite a few
> in the US recently have failed to meet expectations - and I know
> Bangkok has been accused of the same.
>
> Cheers, Alan
> --
> Alan & Jacqui Howes, Dubai, UAE (Otherwise Perthshire, Scotland)
> alaninthegulf at yahoo.co.uk (Alan)        cybermog57 at yahoo.co.uk (Jacqui)
> http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/alanhowes/  [Needs Updating!]
>
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