[sustran] Re: Ridership predictions, urban rail transit

[Wendell Cox]

Yes, Denver is losing money. The technical term for the amount they are
using is "gobs." Best new rail cost recovery in the US is San Diego, at
something like 70 percent of operations and no capital cost recovery.

DEMOGRAPHIA & THE PUBLIC PURPOSE (Wendell Cox Consultancy)
http://www.demographia.com (Demographics & Land Use)
http://www.publicpurpose.com (Public Policy & Transport))
Telephone: +1.618.632.8507 - Facsimile: +1.810.821.8134
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----- Original Message -----
From: John Ernst <johnernst at asia.com>
To: <sustran-discuss at jca.ax.apc.org>
Sent: Tuesday, 23 October, 2001 03:12
Subject: [sustran] Re: Ridership predictions, urban rail transit


> An interesting side-light comparing the Bangkok and Denver rail transit
> systems is that the Bangkok system is considered a failure for moving only
> 220,000 passengers per day while the Denver system is a resounding success
> moving 25,000 passengers per day.
>
> Okay, there's more differences than similarities -- urban size, density,
> construction cost, routing, though roughly similar system length at
present.
>
> What is interesting is the public perception.  Denver RTD predicted 20,000
> riders, so at 25,000 could announce success -- though surely they are
> losing money at that level (anyone know?).  Bangkok predicted 400,000 plus
> because they needed to show they could pay for the all elevated system and
> make a profit.  So, 220,000 riders using a well-run system with a 3-minute
> headway looks like a failure because it's not paying for itself.
> (Fortunately, er unfortunately, Bangkok doesn't consider how much private
> cars aren't paying for themselves.)
>
> John
>
> At 10:08 AM 10/19/01 +0800, Craig Townsend wrote:
> >There was a lack of independent study of the 24km elevated heavy rail
> >Bangkok Transit System ...The forecasts were for 400,000-600,000
> >passengers per day (no one ever really took the high end forecasts
> >seriously) and actual ridership at present was recently estimated at
> >220,000 passengers per day. While it is considered a failure because it
> >hasn't met ridership forecasts, to most people in Bangkok it is
considered
> >a good thing for a number of other reasons (it is estimated that 40,000
of
> >the daily passengers were previously driving)...
>
> At 10:12 AM 10/18/01 -0600, John Renne wrote:
> >Alan, Check out the Regional Transportation District (RTD) in Denver,
> >Colorado. They had a new light rail line open last summer and predicted
> >ridership far underestimated actual ridership. I wish I knew more, but
you
> >can look them up on the web at www.rtd-denver.com
>
> >>From: Alan P Howes <howes at emirates.net.ae>
> >>Date: Thu, 18 Oct 2001 18:38:18 +0400
> >>Can anyone point me to a reference on predicted vs. actual ridership
> >>for new urban rail transit systems? (or better still qute some
> >>examples). I saw something in a mag. recently saying that quite a few
> >>in the US recently have failed to meet expectations - and I know
> >>Bangkok has been accused of the same.
> >
> >- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> >John Ernst   -  Asia Regional Director
> >
> >ITDP - The Institute for Transport and Development Policy    www.itdp.org
> >
> >8 Sukhumvit Soi 49/9    Bangkok 10110    Thailand
> >Tel +66 (2) 326-8727    Fax +1 (801) 365-5914
> >- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -