[sustran] Fw: Ridership predictions, urban rail transit ; Mumbai and Pune

[kisan mehta]

----- Original Message -----
From: kisan mehta <kisansbc at vsnl.com>
To: <sustran-discuss at jca.ax.apc.org>; <<wcox at publicpurpose.com>>
Cc: <Harshad Kamdar>; <Sujit Patwardhan>; <Trilok Kamdar>; <Vishweshwar
raste>  <Saksena>; <vinita salvi>
Sent: Wednesday, October 24, 2001 7.30 AM
Subject: Ridership predictions, urban rail transit ; Mumbai and Pune


> Dear Wendell,
>
> Your news that Mumbai is on your visit list for coming year  brings fresh
> air.  Mumbai is a throbbing urban megalopolis
> with Pune, 180 km away, exhibiting the pains of
> overexploited town now rushing to become a suffocating
> human settlement.  Many old timers wishfully
> hope to protect the charm of Old Poona.
>
> Keep enough time for looking at things in a sustainable
> manner and not like a jet traveller with last leg on the
> place visited and next on the place to hop in.    Mumbai has many
beautiful
> landmarks to show in addition to sickening
> urban sprawl.   Mumbai takes the pride of having the
> largest number of Victorian structures in the midst of
> typical varnacular architecture meeting the utility and
> aethetics of human centre perched literally on water.
>
> The population of Island City is gradually, imperceptibly,
> declining though average population density still is over
> 45,000 per sq km, with some pockets reaching 100,000.
> Suburbs are galloping so also parts of the metropolitan
> Mumbai.  It is estimated that the Mumbai Metro region
> admeasuring 4,090 sq km will have 22.3 million residents
> in 2011. Boundaries between Greater Mumbai and metro regions will have
> vanished by then.   To the relief of Mumbaiites, the decadal growth
> (1991-2001) of Mumbai
> was 20% unlike 38-42% in between the Sixty and Eighty.
>
> Chances of Mumbai galloping in population and therefore congestion are
> provided by the state government relaxing
> the FSI index.  Erstwhile residential areas with narrow
> roads are now vying to have 7 and 10 storeyed buildings
> in place of one/two storeyed bungalows.   This is to be
> viewed in light of the fact of 65% of Mumbaiites being condemned in
> unauthorised slums. Average built up space
> in Mubami is average 2.5 sq m in contrast to 89 in Sweden
> and 49 in Germany.
>
> We do not know whether we shall outwit Mexico City
> or SaoPaulo.  Mumbai's problems seem to be in the
> peculiar condition that the Island City is sealocked on
> 90% while Mumbai's suburbs having water on about
> 60% of landmass. .
>
> One has to reckon that despite this suffocating
> population, both public train and bus services are
> fairly in good shape and provide good mobility.  Mumbai
> is the only metro out of four -Delhi, Calcutta, Mumbai and Chennai- which
> earns surplus on suburban railway
> service.  Not resulting from efficiency but from the
> suffocating crowding.  It appears that the capacity of Mumbaiites to get
> along with overcrowding is
> limitless.  Best wishes.
>
> Kisan Mehta    kisansbc at vsnl.com
> Save Bombay Committee
> 620 Jame Jamshed Road, Dadar East,
> MUMBAI 400 014
> Tel:  00 91 22 414 9688
> Fax: 00 91 22 415 5536
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Wendell Cox <wcox at publicpurpose.com>
> To: <sustran-discuss at jca.ax.apc.org>
> Sent: Monday, October 22, 2001 6:23 PM
> Subject: Ridership predictions, urban rail transit ; Mumbai and Pune
>
>
> > Interesting information. Mumbai is on my list for a visit, I hope within
> the
> > next year.
> >
> > Data seems to indicate the possibility that Mumbai is the world's most
> > densely populated urbanized area, perhaps even higher than Hong Kong. My
> > understanding is that the 2001 census data shows a slight increase in
the
> > island city population, though there has been incredible growth in the
> > balance of the city. Have not been able to determine the extent of
> urbanized
> > area growth outside the city, but would not be surprised if it were
> > substantial. I think there are predictions to the effect that Mumbai
could
> > emerge as the world's largest urban area in a couple of decades. Of
> course,
> > there was a time that the same was said about Mexico City and Sao Paulo,
> and
> > both have settled into much slower growth patterns.
> >
> > But the Mumbai public transport and rail situtation is a good example of
> how
> > different things are between the world's urbanized areas. Too often our
> > western colleagues fail to recognize that there is a difference between
> > Mumbai and say, Portland or Phoenix. Indeed, the Mumbai municipality's
12
> > million people are huddled in an area only 1.5 times the size of
Portland,
> > with its 500.000 residents. If one took out the  national park that
> occupies
> > a large part of the area annexed in the late 1950s, the land area is
> > probably below that of Portland.
> >
> > The point... What makes sense in Mumbai is likely to be rather different
> > than in places that look much different.
> >
> >
> > DEMOGRAPHIA & THE PUBLIC PURPOSE (Wendell Cox Consultancy)
> > http://www.demographia.com (Demographics & Land Use)
> > http://www.publicpurpose.com (Public Policy & Transport))
> > Telephone: +1.618.632.8507 - Facsimile: +1.810.821.8134
> > PO Box 841 - Belleville, IL 62222 USA
> > ----- Original Message -----
> > From: kisan mehta <kisansbc at vsnl.com>
> > To: sustran-discuss <sustran-discuss at jca.ax.apc.org>
> > Sent: Sunday, 21 October, 2001 09:59
> > Subject: [sustran] Fw: [sustran] Re: Ridership predictions, urban rail
> > transit
> >
> >
> > >
> > > ----- Original Message -----
> > > From: kisan mehta <kisansbc at vsnl.com>
> > > To: <sustran-discuss at jca.ax.apc.org>
> > > Sent: Sunday, October 21, 2001 7:31 PM
> > > Subject: [sustran] Ridership predictions, urban rail transit
> > >
> > >
> > > Dear Sustran Colleagues,
> > > >
> > > > I am amazed by the lively discussion on studies taken
> > > up on rail services. Majority of them talk of underutlisation
> > > of facilities planned and/or created.
> > > >
> > > > In Mumbai, the situation is different.  Basic Suburban
> > > Railway Services in Mumbai built in the Thirties.
> > > This helped the city to grow along the railway corridor between
Fifties
> > and
> > > Eighties.  Amalgmation of small
> > > municipalities of the then suburbs with that of Island City
accelerated
> > the
> > > expansion or rather sprawl of the city.
> > > >From a mere 800,000 in 1901 Mumbai touched in March
> > > 2001 12 million staying on 434 sq km area with a suffocating average
> > density
> > > 27,000 persons per sq km.
> > > >
> > > > The Island City is losing in population in favour of
> > > erstwhile suburbs.  Trading activities are concentrated
> > > in the Island City.  So long train and bus journeys. An
> > > estimated 55% of Mumbai's jobs are provided by
> > > people living outside the Island City.
> > >
> > > Mumbai does not have metro or adequate extension
> > > of suburban railways.  Railway and bus services
> > > provide about 10 million journeys a day.  Both
> > > services are crowded to a suffocation level at four
> > > times the normal capacity.  Trains run so jam packed
> > > that they say proverbially that a commuter would not
> > > be able to move his wrist away even if he feels his
> > > wrist watch being pinched.
> > >
> > > Railways are owned by the Indian Government and
> > > Buses by the municipality.  We wonder whether
> > > sophisticated travel demand management concepts
> > > have any relevance at all in human centres of the
> > > developing countries.
> > >
> > > With globalisation and free market access operating
> > > on full scale, the government priority in the so
> > > called developing (respectable designation for poor)
> > > countries is motor roads and expressways.  The
> > > Maharashtra Government built about 80 km of
> > > the 160 km of Mumbai Pune Road at the cost of Rs
> > > 16 billion. Toll from motor cars using the facility
> > > does not cover even the interest cost of Rs 2.4
> > > billion. The Finance Minister admited the other day
> > > that the expressway has proved to be financially
> > > unviable.  Best wishes.
> > >
> > > Kisan Mehta  kisansbc at vsnl.com
> > >
> > >
> >
> >
>