[sustran] Re: More on Ridership predictions, urban rail transit

[Wendell Cox]

Depends upon what you call official projections. In the case of Dallas, the
projections made at the time the program was sold to the public for the
ballot referendum are way above anything that will ever be achieved even
when they finish the system.

STL has done better, but as for reduction of traffic congestion during peak
hours, or even slowing its growth, the score is, frankly, zero.

One of the important debate issues is what projections are used to justify a
project. In Los Angeles, we approved the Blue Line light rail line when the
anticipated cost was less than $150 million. Even then, the votes were
barely there at the time on the LACTC (commission). A series of cost
increases eventually got the project to over $900m, with a more than
doubling in real $ (dont remember the exact figure) by the time it was
opened. Fact is that the votes would not have been there for a $900 million
project in 1981, even in 1981$. For me, the crucial ridership and cost
projections are those made at the point that the decision to proceed is
made. Rarely will a government agency cancel a project once approved. Best
example of that is the world record holding Big Dig in Boston.

DEMOGRAPHIA & THE PUBLIC PURPOSE (Wendell Cox Consultancy)
http://www.demographia.com (Demographics & Land Use)
http://www.publicpurpose.com (Public Policy & Transport))
Telephone: +1.618.632.8507 - Facsimile: +1.810.821.8134
PO Box 841 - Belleville, IL 62222 USA
----- Original Message -----
From: <BruunB at aol.com>
To: <sustran-discuss at jca.ax.apc.org>
Sent: Tuesday, 23 October, 2001 10:16
Subject: [sustran] More on Ridership predictions, urban rail transit


> The Hudson-Bergen line is on the west side of the Hudson in New Jersey,
right
> across from Manhattan. By the way, ridership has changed substantially
since
> the
> attack on the WTC.
>
> I want to point out two other things:
>
> 1) There are some new rail systems that are well above official
projections,
> for example, Dallas and Saint Louis.
> 2) The concern that a line is not immediately near capacity is misplaced.
Do
> we want our airports or motorways to be near capacity right after opening?
> No, we want reserve capacity, especially if we hope to attract develop
along
> the line.
>
> Eric