[sustran] Re: [[sustran] Ridership predictions, urban rail transit]

[Todd Litman]

Don Pickrell did author "A Desire Named Streetcar". The full citation is:
Don Pickrell, "A Desire Named Streetcar: Fantasy and Fact in Rail Transit
Planning," Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 58, No. 2,
Spring 1992, pp. 158-76.  

One of his main conclusions was that funding practices encouraged local
transportation officials to exaggerate ridership predictions in order to
receive federal funds. The examples he looked at are more than a decade
old, and the FTA has changed some of their practices to demand more
reasonable ridership estimates, although I don't know the details. I've
heard that some recent rail systems have exceeded ridership projections,
including St Louis, Portland and Calgary. I would not assume that the
findings of Pickrell's 1992 article necessarily apply now.

The criticism that transportation planners often understate costs and
overstate benefits also applies to highway projects. Many highway capacity
expansion projects are promoted as congestion reduction strategies, but
their congestion reduction benefits disappear within a few years. Highways
capacity expansion is also promoted as a way to increase regional economic
development, but recent research suggests that this is not usually a cost
effective investment if demand management strategies can encourage more
efficient use of existing roadway capacity.

This is not to say that rail transit investments are always worthwhile or
that transit planning is foolproof, but there is no need to suggest that
public transit planning is worse than other types of transportation planning.

For discussion see:

Marlon Boarnet and Andrew F. Haughwout, "Do Highways Matter? Evidence and
Policy Implications of Highways' Influence on Metropolitan Development,"
Brooking Institute (www.brookings.edu), 2000.

"Social Benefits of Public Transit" Online TDM Encyclopedia
http://www.vtpi.org/tdm/tdm62.htm

"Economic Development Benefits of TDM" Online TDM Encyclopedia
http://www.vtpi.org/tdm/tdm54.htm

SACTRA, Transport Investment, Transport Intensity and Economic Growth,
Standing Advisory Committee on Trunk Road Assessment, Dept. of Environment,
Transport and Regions (London; www.roads.detr.gov.uk/roadnetwork), 1999. 

STPP, An Analysis of the Relationship Between Highway Expansion and
Congestion in Metropolitan Areas, Surface Transportation Policy Project
(Washington DC; www.transact.org), 1998.

Jeffery J. Smith, Does Mass Transit Raise Site Values Around Its Stops
Enough To Pay For Itself (Were The Value Captured)?, Geonomy Society
(www.progress.org/geonomy), 2001. Also available at the Victoria Transport
Policy Institute (www.vtpi.org).


At 11:44 AM 10/19/01 EDT, you wrote:
>Maybe the author of "A Desire Named Streetcar" was John Kain, not Don 
>Pickrell, although I don't have the reference handy.  In my opinion, I think 
>this article is flawed.


Sincerely,

Todd Litman, Director
Victoria Transport Policy Institute
"Efficiency - Equity - Clarity"
1250 Rudlin Street
Victoria, BC, V8V 3R7, Canada
Phone & Fax: 250-360-1560
E-mail:  litman at vtpi.org
Website: http://www.vtpi.org