[sustran] Re: Ridership predictions, urban rail transit

[Paul TIMMS]

There were a large number of studies of BTS and other lines in 
Bangkok conducted by consultants for various government departments in
 the 80s and 90s.  All these studies assumed 
that the rail fare would be comparable to the fare for an 
air-condtioned bus and one even assumed the fare would be the same as 
for  non-air-conditioned buses.  As a result they led to relatively 
high estimates of ridership.  The fare actually implemented was 
about 5 times that of an air-conditioned bus and ten times that of a 
non-air-conditioned bus.  It could be said that today's ridership of 
220,000 is higher than might be expected under these circumstances.

The simple message here is that fares should be set at a level to 
maximise social benefit rather than maximise private profit.  

Paul Timms
obtain maximum socila benefit.  If they are set at a level utIt seems clear



> Date:          Fri, 19 Oct 2001 10:08:07 +0800
> To:            sustran-discuss at jca.ax.apc.org
> From:          Craig Townsend <townsend at central.murdoch.edu.au>
> Subject:       [sustran] Re: Ridership predictions, urban rail transit
> Reply-to:      sustran-discuss at jca.ax.apc.org

> There was a lack of independent study of the 24km elevated heavy rail 
> Bangkok Transit System which opened in late 1999. The project was a solely 
> private sector undertaking, and the company responsible is alleged to have 
> paid consultants to produce inflated ridership forecasts in order to secure 
> finance and encourage private investors (including the World Bank). In 
> defence of the company responsible, the city government (the Bangkok 
> Metropolitan Administration) had made commitments to provide certain 
> improvements around stations and to contribute to a re-organization of the 
> public buses to feed the stations and these commitments were not met. The 
> forecasts were for 400,000-600,000 passengers per day (no one ever really 
> took the high end forecasts seriously) and actual ridership at present was 
> recently estimated at 220,000 passengers per day. While it is considered a 
> failure because it hasn't met ridership forecasts, to most people in 
> Bangkok it is considered a good thing for a number of other reasons (it is 
> estimated that 40,000 of the daily passengers were previously driving), and 
> ways are currently being looked at to extend the system and to integrate it 
> with the subway that is currently under construction (it is likely that the 
> subway will also have trouble meeting its forecasts in the absence of 
> government actions to rationalize bus services and improve pedestrian 
> access to stations). It should be noted that the BTS is charging premium 
> fares which are in some cases 10 times the fare for a bus running on the 
> same route, and the per km ridership per day is actually higher than 
> Singapore's MRT in the first year of operations.
> 
> There is a similar story to be told about Kuala Lumpur's two private LRT 
> systems.
> 
> In a paper presented in July at the WCTR in Seoul, Roger Mackett presented 
> a paper (co-authored by Ela Babalik) analyzing 8 LRT systems. According to 
> this paper, San Diego Trolley (80.4km), St Louis Metrolink (27.2km), 
> Vancouver Skytrain (28.9km), and Manchester Metrolink (31.0km) all met or 
> exceeded their forecasts. Miami Metrorail (33.8km), Sacramento Light Rail 
> (29.2km), Sheffield Supertram (29.0km), and Newcastle upon Tyne Tyne and 
> Wear Metro (59.1km) did not meet their forecasts.
> 
> I have been told that one of the most successful (i.e. actual patronage far 
> exceeded forecasts) new LRTs is in Turkey, but I don't have the details.
> 
> 
> At 06:38 PM 18/10/01 +0400, you wrote:
> >Hi everyone -
> >
> >Can anyone point me to a reference on predicted vs. actual ridership
> >for new urban rail transit systems? (or better still qute some
> >examples). I saw something in a mag. recently saying that quite a few
> >in the US recently have failed to meet expectations - and I know
> >Bangkok has been accused of the same.
> >
> >Cheers, Alan
> >--
> >Alan & Jacqui Howes, Dubai, UAE (Otherwise Perthshire, Scotland)
> >alaninthegulf at yahoo.co.uk (Alan)        cybermog57 at yahoo.co.uk (Jacqui)
> >http://www.users.zetnet.co.uk/alanhowes/  [Needs Updating!]
> 
> ________________________________________________
> Craig Townsend
> Institute for Sustainability & Technology Policy
> Murdoch University
> South Street, Murdoch
> Perth, Western Australia 6150
> 
> tel: (61 8) 9360 6278
> fax: (61 8) 9360 6421
> email: townsend at central.murdoch.edu.au
> 
>