[sustran] world bank urban transport strategy

[ITDP]

I've sent some comments to the  author of the World
Bank's new Urban Transport Strategy, generally favorable, but with a few

areas of disagreement.  I'm wondering if anyone has any empirical
evidence regarding the issues below...

I expressed the view that the current Strategy's heavy focus blaming
public transit fare price controls for the deterioration of public
transit in developing countries (and hence destroying services for the
poor) was a bit one-sided.  He notes that in many developing countries
controlling public transit fares led to the deterioration of these
systems and their replacement eventually with often more expensive
paratransit systems, particularly in lower income neighborhoods.

My contention is that the takeover of public transit systems by private
paratransit systems was not entirely due to transit fare controls, and
that there are no doubt cases where

a) transit services did not deteriorate despite the continuation of
transit fare controls, and
b) transit services deteriorated anyway even though there were no
transit fare controls and prices were allowed to increase.

Does anyone know of documented empirical cases for these two?   I would
guess that transit fares in Curitiba are regulated and the services are
not deteriorating, (operators are paid per km at a rate determined by
the state).  Does anyone have any concrete examples other than Curitiba?

I would also guess that in Indonesia during the economic crisis bus
fares increased recently (due to fuel price increases) yet the vehicles
are still deteriorating (incomes for the system are still lower due to
falling ridership because of the economic crisis).  I also believe in
much of Central Europe public transit systems have increased their
prices closer to commericial cost recovery ratios, yet the systems
continue to deteriorate.  Whether they would have deteriorated more or
less if fares had not increased is of course difficult to say, but a
case could be made that they would have deteriorated 'about the same.'

Any opinions or data on this?  I promised to get back to Ken on this.

Thanks
Walter Hook
ITDP



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