[sustran] Future of bicycle transport

[Institute for Global Futures Research (IGFR)]

Another article from Alan Parker...

Regards,
Geoff Holland
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Institute for Global Futures Research (IGFR).
P.O. Box 263E, Earlville, QLD 4870, Australia.
E-mail: <igfr at igfr.org>.
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May I reciprocate with another bicycle paper of my ownabout the Dutch who
are successfully constraining the growth in car use and ensuring that an
average of 28% of all passenger transport trips are made by bicycle with
that increasing to 34% of trips by 2010. They have long term plans that are
light years ahead of most other countries  I have studied the Dutch
situation and have ridden a bicycle and used public transport in 12 Dutch
cities. So the following is not yust a desk job.
_____________________________________________________________________
The central GOAL of the Dutch National Environment Plan (NEPP) is
DECOUPLING ECONOMIC GROWTH FROM THE GROWTH IN FUEL CONSUMPTION AND THE USE
OF NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES.  
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In the passenger transport sector the Dutch are reducing greenhouse gas
emissions from the car fleet. Current predictions of carbon dioxide
emissions from cars for urban Australia and the Netherlands from 1990 to
2010 show that per capita emissions are half that of Australia in 1996 and
will reduce to around one third by 2010 graph. The Dutch are making much
more efficient use of their car fleet. At present only 23% of the Dutch car
fleet is older than 10 years compared to 43% of the Australian car fleet
and Dutch cars are on average smaller. Another factor is that 41% of
passenger cars are powered by LPG which produces 14 % less GHG and
significantly less air pollution (Statistics Netherlands 1997). Also,
substituting around 8 billion bicycle kms for around 8 billion car kms is
very effective because most short car trips are made with cold engines that
are very polluting. The only accurate Australian data are for carbon
dioxide emissions from the car fleet. National passenger data for all trips
or school trips are not available.The price of petrol is three times higher
in the Netherlands.

There is no evidence in Australia to expect a change to these unsustainable
transport trends especially as the introduction of the GST will reduce
motoring costs and increase the cost of public transportation by increasing
fares by around 10%. The average passenger vehicle fleet fuel consumption
has not change significantly from 1976 to 1996 and there are now 70% more
vehicles on Australian roads. Note that the passenger vehicle fleet
includes cars, utes, light trucks, light vans and four wheel drives
(Schipper 1996). New passenger car fuel efficiency has improved from 13
litres per 100 km to 9 litres per 100 kms in the same period but with a far
increasing number of four wheel drives consuming nearly twice as much fuel
it has not reduced per capita average petrol consumption at all.(Schipper
1996)  

In Australia the practice in recent years of subsidising large car use as
part of the salary package (Lowe, I 1990) and before that company car tax
allowances, has resulted and will continue to lock people into car
dependency (Hawes 1999) and in turn contribute to the increase of single
occupant car commuting Clearly the decrease in car occupancy for commuting
will continue to the year 2006 unless there are major changes in policy.
Change is not likely because no state government has an effective demand
management strategy that encourages a combination of car pooling, car
sharing or Dutch style shared ownership schemes (Bakker 1995 ). Even so,
Dutch experience suggests that there is the potential for a shift of at
least 10% of all long ³drive alone² commuter trips to multiple occupant
trips. There is also the potential to use the bicycle as an access mode for
long distance commuting with van and car pooling, that use computer
matching techniques for the selection of pool members.

A useful comparison of Amsterdam and Australian cities in 1990 is available
from the The World Bank Report (WBR) ³Indicators of Transport efficiency in
37 Global Cities². That report uses 27 economic, transport and
environmental indicators to assess the performance of urban transport
systems . The per capita indicators show that 11 European cities including
Amsterdam were generally wealthier, had safer roads, less greenhouse gases
from motor vehicles and lower levels of per capita car use compared to U.S.
and Australian cities

Surveys of trips to school in Australia and the 1976 to 1996 Census data
for the journey to work in Australia suggest that the following trends will
continue for many years:

1. The over use of the motor car generally and the decline of informal car
sharing for the trip to work results in single occupant cars causing more
congestion in the large cities.

2.  The declining use of public transport and walking generally and in
particular walking and cycling to school (ABS 1995) and cycling to stations.

3. The very small increase in commuter cycling, in most cities despite a
high level of  recreational cycling and bicycle ownership by children and
adults.

The overall planning policies that prevail in the Netherlands today are now
accepted by European Commission (EC) and the World Health Organisation
(WHO) as the way to go and would in time reverse the above trends. These
planning policies are applicable to South Australia and neatly summarised
in the recommendations of the new ³Charter on Transport, Environment and
Health² adopted by the the Ministers and representatives of the European
Member States of WHO and Members of the EC responsible for transport,
environment and health. (WHO 1999). See recommendations section of this
review.
.
Compared to Auastralia The Netherlands has 14 times as many person trips by
bicycle yet the overall road death rate per 100,000 population for all road
users is much lower and the death rate of cyclists per million km ridden is
around one third of what it is in Australia.(Parker 1999 B )  The practice
since 1975 of physically separating bicycle traffic from motor vehicle
traffic at speeds of 50 km/hour or more is working well. However it is not
as simple as that and a lot more is involved in making cycling safe than
bikeway network provision. 

Dutch road safety policy is based on the philosophy of ³sustainable road
safety² which in practice results in fewer and fewer road users being
exposed to injurious mechanical forces in collisions that produce death or
crippling injuries. The philosophy of ³sustainable road safety² recognises
the vulnerability of non-motorised road users and gives priority to their
safety needs. Furthermore it is supported by a travel and road safety data
collection process that ensures that non-motorised modes are taken
seriously by decision makers. In comparison there is a data vacuum in
Australia generally and many of the needs of vulnerable road users are
notable by their absence in National Road Safety Strategies promoted by the
Federal Office of Road Safety.(Parker 1998)(Parker 1999) 

Furthermore studies conducted for the Dutch Bicycle Master Plan have
dispelled the myth that cycling is inherently unsafe compared to driving.
For example if we compare like with like, that is car drivers and bicycle
riders in the same age group, we find that young drivers of 18 to 24 years
of age are more at risk than bicycle riders per million km travelled (DBMP
1999). What is even more telling is that the pedestrian death rate per
million km walked was five time higher in Australia in 1986.

The Dutch have monitored bicycle use since the 1950s and from 1980 there
have been a lot of data gathered so they know if their bicycle planning
efforts are effective and they know that their long term target for the
bicycle to substitute for many more short car trips is being achieved.
There is a large bicycle use database that makes research possible. The
historical overview of bicycle transport in the Dutch Bicycle Master Plan
(BMP) uses this database to clearly document their experiences in coping
with bicycle traffic and becoming world leaders in building urban road
systems that constrain the growth in unnecessary car use by providing for
the safe and convenient use of bicycles and pedestrians (Parker 1998 C).

THE DUTCH NATIONAL ENVIRONMENT AND POLICY PLAN (NEPP)

As yet no country in the world has made a total commitment to achieve ESD
least of all in passenger transport which in most countries including
Australia has become less sustainable with increasing levels of
motorisation. Indeed, the Australian National Greenhouse Strategy (NGS)
bluntly states that:-
 
"Transport was responsible for 24% of emissions produced through activities
involving the use of energy in 1996ŠCars were responsible for 56% of these
emissionsŠ. In the absence of further measures to limit greenhouse
emissions, domestic transport emissions will increase by 42%, on 1994
levels by the year 2015Š.P 55"
 
In marked contrast to Australia the Netherlands has been moving slowly
towards ESD in the transport sector as  result of a commitment to a
National Environment and Policy Plan (N.E.P.P 3. 1998) that drives national
planning and the implementation of the BMP. The central goal of N.E.P.P 3
is decoupling economic growth from the growth in fuel consumption and use
of non renewable resources which is seen as both a sound economic and
environmental strategy. The transport objectives of the NEPP are that:-

* Vehicles must be as clean,  quiet , safe and economical as possible.
*  The choice of mode for passenger transport must result in the lowest
possible energy consumption and least possible pollution.

*  The locations where people live shop,work and spend their leisure time
will be coordinated in such a way that the need to travel is minimised.

 Without the NEPP it was expected that car kms would increase by 72% over
the period 1986 to 2010. With the NEPP this increase will be lowered to
48%, a positive step towards ESD. 

Recent and planned investment in th NEPP has or will be providing the
following: high speed passenger train routes to reduce intercity air travel
between Schiphol Airport and German and French airports; high speed rail
freight links to get the trucks off the roads; highly efficient multi modal
freight transfer systems in Rotterdam and other ports to decrease cost and
energy use.  NEPP aimed to increase rail passenger traffic by 15% by 2010
through improving bicycle parking at stations and implementation is already
well ahead of schedule. Netherlands Railways are well on the way to
increasing rail passenger traffic from 9 billion passenger km in 1987 to 17
billion passengers in 2010 (RGI 1996). The seamless connectivity of public
transport, and the special provisions made for carrying bicycles on all
Dutch trains are most impressive

The measures taken to implement the NEPPshow that ³green taxes²(eco-taxes)
have great potential to increase the quality of life while reducing
greenhouse gas emissions and oil dependence. Some of these tax measures are
as follows:-

1. The greening of the tax system, whereby there is a shift from the
taxation of labour to the taxation of environmentally harmful activities.
Direct taxation of wages and incomes will be reduced while taxes on
consumption will be increased. (Depending on the environmental implications
of that consumption).

2. Increase in fuel tax rates (1995); increase the variable component of
motoring costs by increasing excise duty on motor fuels (1997). Petrol
costs A$1.60c per litre at the pump. 

3. Value-added tax incentives for employers to provide bicycles (1996)
Reimbursement of cycle commuting costs in wages and income tax (1997)

4. Increase in scope and magnitude of the tax allowance for trip to work
travel costs by means of public transport and the tax free reimbursement of
public transport costs in wages and income tax (1997); increased allowance
(1998)

5. Freeze on car commuting tax allowance (1997)

6. Incentives for tele-working in wages and income tax (1997) increased
concessions (1998)

7. Widening and simplification of wages and income tax concessions for car
pooling (1998)

8. The government is studying the scope for incorporating an environmental
component in the excise levied on new vehicles and the annual vehicle tax
so as to provide incentives for the purchase of clean, energy-efficient
cars, and to optimise the fuel mix.

 The most important lesson to learn from the Dutch experience is how
difficult it is to change transport behaviour. The simplistic views of what
is possible in Australia undermine any chance of achieving positive change.
The Dutch are brutally frank about what is not being achieved and that is
very necessary because bicycle planning in isolation will produce little
unless planning to reduce car dependency and urban sprawl are seen as being
equally important.

The crucial land  use planning policy is to put the ³right business in the
right place². Outer urban super markets accessed by car are no longer
built. Universities are not built like they are in Australia as low rise
spread out institutions conveniently accessible only by car; instead they
are compact multi story campuses built alongside rail lines and if there is
no local station they build one.

The Dutch national car parking manual (C.R.O.W. No 11) speaks volumes for
the realism of Dutch transport planning which provides for bicycle parking
but seeks to constrain car use when it states unambiguously on the first
page that:-

 ³ Definition: A coordinated car parking policy is directed to restricting
car use. The aim is to encourage selective car use so as to make a
favourable contribution to accessibility and the living environment by
reducing car mobility which reduces congestion while at the same time
stimulates alternative modes of transport. It also plays a part in the
sharing of scarce space².

The Dutch Coordinated National Car Parking Policy (C.R.O.W. 11 1994) has
been successful and large supermarkets sited inside massive car parks are
very noticeable by their absence. However NEPP 3 proposes than another
"stick " to be developed in the form of new car parking policies that
constrain municipalities from competing with one another by the over
provision of car parking spaces. (This is also an Australian problem) The
Dutch government will address this problem by:- 

"commissioning research into the scope for effective coordination and
harmonisation of both the provision and pricing of paid car parking and
controlling the provision of public and private parking facilities (NEPP 3
1998)".

In marked contrast, the Australian government's $180 million program for
greenhouse gas reduction is not directed to forceful mitigation measures
likely to reverse increasing car use. It is in fact a wish list with very
little in the way of funded programs.The car dominated transport system
will stay that way and even making better use of cars by sharing them is
unlikely to happen. Commonwealth agencies in Australia mostly ignore the
the central goal of NEPP for uncoupling the growth of GDP from fossil fuel
consumption.

REFERENCES. Note Dutch materials are in English.

Bakker,M.G.(1995) Car sharing initiatives in The Netherlands, internal
memorandum by the Project manager, Directorate-General, Ministry of
Transport , Public Works and Water Management, The Hague June 1995.
Boyd, H. N. (1998) Using Taxation to Encourage Cycling, p 35 & 36, Velo
Borealis.international Bicycle Conference Proceedings Trondheim - Norway,
23 -26 June 1998.
C.R.O.W. (1987) Record  2. Proceeding Velocity 87 . Groningen Sept 22-26 
C.R.O.W. (1991).Record 9. Cycling in the city, pedalling in the polder.
Centre for Research and Contract Standardisation in Civil and Traffic
Engineering. The Netherlands.
C.R.O.W. (1992).Record 6. Still more bikes behind the  dikes.. Centre for
Research and Contract Standardisation
C.R.O.W. (1993).Record 10. Sign up for the Bike: Design manual for a
cycle-friendly infrastructure. Centre for Research and Contract
Standardisation
C.R.O.W. (1993).publication 79 Rotondes , Centre for Research and Contract
Standardisation in Civil and Traffic Engineering. The Netherlands.
Hawes, R. (1999) Weekend Australian article page 45, ³Good news comes in
Salary Packages: once the preserve of executives,renumeration packages may
soon be the norm.²
NEPP 3, (1998) National Environment Policy Plan 3 English Language version
(264 pages, Ministry of Housing,Spatial Planning and the Environment, The
Netherlands, Available free from: Ministry of Transport and Public Works
and Water Management, Directorate general for Passenger Transport  P.O.box
20901, 2500EX The Hague.. 
Newman,N.and Kenworthy, K. (1999) Sustainability and cities: overcoming
automobile dependence, Island Press , Washington, D.C. 
Parker, A.A. (1998 b) Pedestrian safety: a non-motorised user¹s
perspective, Pedestrian safety conference, Australian College of Road
Safety, 29th & 30th June 1998, Melbourne.See text page197 and chart 2  
Parker,A.A. May 1999 An integrated transport, health & environmental policy
will make everyday walking and cycling safer, 1999 Road Safety Research
Policing and Education conference, Canberra 28-29November.
RGI (1996) Political wavering clouds Railned planning 426 Railway Gazette
International July 1996.
Statistics Netherlands (1997) Ownership and use of passenger cars.
Statistics Netherlands, Voorburgh/Heerlen.From Web site
www.cbs.nl./eng/kfg/hvvo472.htm  
Welleman, A. G. (1999) ,The Dutch Bicycle Master Plan:Description and
Evalualation in a historical context, Ministry of Transport and Public
Works and Water Management,Available free from: Ministry of Transport and
Public Works and Water Management, Directorate general for Passenger
Transport  P.O.box 20901, 2500EX The Hague.
World Health Organisation (1999) Charter on Transport, Environment and
Health adopted by Ministers and representatives of the European Member
States of W HO and members of the EC responsible for transport Environment
and Health.August. 
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May the wind be at your back
Alan. 

Alan A. Parker
50 Stirling Street,
Footscray. Victoria,
Australia, 3011

Email alanpar at ozemail.com.au
Telephone 03 9689 3693
Fax 03 9687 9519