[sustran] Re: Reducing number of cars on the road

[Todd Litman]

At 05:45 AM 03/28/2000 +0530, Debi Goenka wrote:
>We are planning a 20% reduction every day by asking for cars
>with number plates ending in certain figures to be banned by a Court order.
>Do you know of any place in the world where similar schemes
>have been tried/implemented?

That strategy has been tried in a number of places on a short-term basis,
and for relatively long periods in Mexico City. For discussion see: Haynes
Goddard, "Using Tradable Permits to Achieve Sustainability in the World's
Large Cities," Environmental and Resource Economics, Vol. 10	1997, pp. 63-99.

The experience has been rather negative, for a number of reasons, and you
certainly can't expect a 20% reduction in total vehicle travel for the
following reasons:

* Many trips are simply deferred, not eliminated. If a motorist planned to
go shopping by car, they will simply put it off until the next day,
resuling in no actual reduction in mileage or emissions.

* Wealthier households will purchase a second car with another license
number, simply to have one available every day. These tend to be cheap,
older, high polluting vehicles. Mexico City recorded a jump in the number
of vehicles owned due to this policy.

* As a practical matter, a large portion of vehicles must be exempted,
including any vehicle used for business (taxis, delivery vehicles, vehicles
used for construction work, etc.) and many professionals (doctors,
salespeople, lawyers, etc.) demand excemptions based on their professional
"needs."

As a result, vehicle travel reductions and emission reductions are much
smaller than projected, perhaps 5% at most. There are many other
Transportation Demand Management strategies that I consider more effective,
including higher fuel taxes, weight-distance charges, mileage-based
insurance, parking pricing, emission fees, transit/HOV priority strategies,
transit improvements, Smart Growth and pedestrian/cycling improvements. For
information see "Potential TDM Strategies" and "Win-Win Transportation
Solutions" at our website. In a few weeks we will also have an Online TDM
Encyclopedia, that will provide more detailed information about these
strategies.

Sincerely,

Todd Litman, Director
Victoria Transport Policy Institute
"Efficiency - Equity - Clarity"
1250 Rudlin Street
Victoria, BC, V8V 3R7, Canada
Phone & Fax: 250-360-1560
E-mail:  litman at vtpi.org
Website: http://www.vtpi.org