[sustran] transport and the asian econ. debacle

[Bambang Susantono]

Dear netters, 

my few comments about Jakarta's transportation below:
==============================================================

Institute for Transportation and Development Policy wrote:
> 
> Just a few thoughts on Paul Barter's request for transport impacts of > the Asian economic debacle.
> 
> Major toll road project in Surabaya was cancelled.  The triple decker  > toll road-light rail line proposed for Jakarta was put on hold before  > the  crash, but is certain to be dead in the water now.  Toll roads,   > normally pretty lucrative,  appear to have been pretty hard hit because > they have some foreign currency borrowing but all their revenues are in > domestic currency,so they were badly hit by the change in the exchange > rate.
Yes, most toll roads are delayed or postponed, but not all of them. Some
of them which use domestic funds are still going. Most of the on-goint
toll roads are financed by the Indonesian Highway Corporation. Triple
decker is not officially canceled, although in reality there is no
activity in the field. Elevated road along "Kali Malang" River, however,
is still (surprisingly) on (dont know until when).


> Borrowing for public sector roads from the World Bank, ADB, and JICA is > not slowing down, however; rather, it is increasing.  
The major roads program are the rural and regional transport project.
Under the special INPRES (block grant) program to local government, one
of the objective of massive road building, operation and maintenance is
to provide jobs for thousands people hit by current crisis. As most of
you aware, there are many lay-offs going on and unemployment rate is
expected to rise exorbitantly. Here is one way to avoid any social
unrest and political instability.

 
> In Jakarta, most people are dependent on public transit, a lot of which > is in private hands.  No question they are going to be hit by increased > oil prices. Food prices etc. are also rising.  
Only about 50 % of people use public transit. See the following study:
JMATS, 1972-- 61 % public transport, 39 % cars
ARSDS, 1985-- 57 % public transport, 43 % cars
JMTSS, 1992-- 49.1 % public transport, 50.9 % cars
Will people use public transport after the gasoline price increase? The
Arterial Road System Developmetn Project shows that the probality is
minuscule in the event of better public trasnport condition (note: not
on the gasoline price increase). Interestingly, there is a tendency of
people using carpooling, vanpooling and buspooling to save the
transportation cost. My unscientific telephone survey indicates this. In
fact, vanpooling and buspooling are underestimated in Jakarta trasnport
study. In every major public offices or private companies, we can easily
find this mode of trasnptation.

> Many believe there would be riots
> in Jakarta already if it weren't the middle of Ramadan, soon followed  > by Idul Fitri.
There is no riot so far in Jakarta! Most powerful moslem religious
leaders have vowed not to tolerate any riots (especially in Jakarta).
This message by "kyais" is more powerful than the armed forces. Sorry,
dont want to talk about politics in this forum.

> Maybe this is a strategic opportunity to push for non-motorized solutions.
> Even the govt might be willing to back dramatic increases in bike use, since
> it would reduce the burden of increased oil prices.  Cuba went for the bike
> for this reason.
> 
I will respond this issue in separate e-mail.


> Best,
> Walter
> 

Sincerely ("salam")


Bambang Susantono
Bintaro Jaya, Jakarta/Berkeley, CAL r.r.