[sustran] New Urbanism, Portland and THE ECONOMIST

[Wendell Cox]

It is, however, the most recent available for urbanized areas. The issue
is raised because Portland promoters routinely claim that their urban
growth boundary (UGB) and planning policies have already accomplished
much. The fact is that the UGB has been in effect for nearly 20 years
--- and the one decade during that period for which we have data
indicates that it had no impact whatever --- that all other US western
urbanized areas densified at greater rates than Portland --- many
significantly greater. The story in Portland is not what they have
accomplished --- because they havn't accomplished anything --- it is
rather what they intend to accomplish. The next data point will be the
2000 census, with urbanized area data due out in 2002 (or 2003).
Meanwhile, it's a bit early to "break out the champaign." Seattle, which
has only recently obtained an UGB, is every bit as delightful as
Portland. And San Bernardino-Riverside, the data indicates, emerges as
the new urbanist model for others to follow (at least in the 1980s).

Portland, like virtually all other US urbanized areas is becoming or
seeks to become Los Angeles! (at least with respect to density). The
2040 plan could get them there, though I would bet against it, given
recent political happenings there.

Best regards,
Wendell Cox

Eric Bruun wrote:
> 
> The Census data up to 1990 that Cox cites below is very obsolete. The
> infill craze, and there really is some infill going on, is over the last
> few years. However, it is still limited and is causing a lot of hardship
> for people of modest means as real estate values approach those of
> San Francisco. Cox is right that the average density is lower
> than Los Angeles, as LA does have some dense areas.  However, I think the
> data will show that Portland is increasing in density, and not decreasing
> like almost every other city. Eric Bruun
> 
> On Fri, 16 Jan 1998, Wendell Cox wrote:
> 
> > Article in current issue of THE ECONOMIST suggests that Portland's 2 decade
> > old urban growth boundary had forced infilling development. US Census Bureau
> > data for the 1980-1990 period indicates no such trend (latest data
> > available). Among 10 US urbanized areas with  more than 1 million
> > population, Portland ranked last in percentage density increase. Ranked 7th
> > in overall density --- barely half that of Los Angeles.
> >
> > Details at...
> >
> > http://www.publicpurpose.com/dm-uargn.htm
> >
> > Best regards,
> > Wendell Cox
> > WENDELL COX CONSULTANCY
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