[sustran] Fleet Growth Projections

[Christopher Zegras]

Dear Friends, 

We are trying to find some decent means of projecting vehicle fleet growth
(private motorized vehicles, trucks, buses) for the case of Peru.  

Does anyone know of existing projections and/or data sources?

Without getting too complicated, we ran a simple regression income per
capita/private motorized vehicle per capita for the years 1976-1996.  The r2
is abysmal.  Of course, while a wide range of factors play a role in fleet
growth, the international comparisons that I have done, at least for private
vehicles, show a pretty strong relationship. For example, autos per capita
and purchasing power per capita on international data for 1992 (from
automobile manufacturers association and world bank) returns an r2 of .87.

For Chile, we find for private vehicles/capita income/capita, from 1983-96,
an r2 of .91. For buses, the same period and variables yields an r2 of .98.
even trucks yields an r2 of .92.

At the moment, our peruvian partners have decided that the poor r2 for the
20 years analyzed in Peru is due to the fact that during that time the
country was going through serious structural changes, political upheaval,
etc. (I suspect that an additional influencing factor probably has to do
with poor records).  They now think that the country will behave more like
its Andean neighbor and have chosen the slope of the Chilean regressions to
project future growth rates.

Does any body have any precedents, comments or suggestions?  At a minimum, I
would like to see the behavior over time in other Latin American countries,
but I do not know where to get the data.  The only sources I know of are the
annual reports of the Automobile Manufacturers Assocation, but they are not
available in any libraries here in Chile and I VERY expensive to buy. 

Any insights and support are very appreciated.

Warm regards, 

Chris Zegras





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