[sustran] transport and the asian econ. debacle

[John Whitelegg]

----------
From: 	Institute for Transportation and Development 
Policy[SMTP:mobility at igc.apc.org]
Sent: 	Tuesday, February 03, 1998 9:14 PM
To: 	sustran-discuss at jca.ax.apc.org
Subject: 	[sustran] transport and the asian econ. debacle


Dear Colleagues,

Walter's note about the economic problems of Asia reminds me to ask 
everyone for ideas/contributions to the next special issue of World 
Transport Policy and Practice.  This will appear in May this year (vol 4 no 
2) and will cover toll roads and the private financing of transport 
infrastructure.  I am looking for a very fundamental review/audit of 
experinece in this area.  How do these projects fit into the concept of 
national/regional transport planning?  How do the numbers stack up over a 
30-40 year period?  is the final cost to the tax payer graeter than if the 
road had been built in the "usual" way.  How do private companies manage 
their environmental, social and broader responsibilities?  Are there any 
parallels with historical experinece eg the land development spree of mid 
19th century US railraod expansion.  I have already got authors lined up on 
the Israeli Road no 6, the UK Birmingham Northern Relief Rd, the Melbourne 
freeways and would really like a Us example or two, a Surabaya case study 
and anything else that might fit the bill.  let me know and we will have a 
discussion.

best wishes,

John Whitelegg
Editor
World Transport Policy and Practice

phone:  +44 1524 63175
fax:       +44 1524 848340
e-mail    j.whitelegg at lancaster.ac.uk


Just a few thoughts on Paul Barter's request for transport impacts of the
Asian economic debacle.

Spoke to some folks at the World Bank and some friends in Indonesia about
the situation there.  Several interesting connections...

Bank failure in Hong Kong was largely due to a major loan to a Jakarta taxi
company owned by the President's son which had expanded too rapidly in an
attempt to take over the market and get involved in toll road construction.
They borrowed, aparently, largely using the name of the President as
collateral.

Major toll road project in Surabaya was cancelled.  The triple decker toll
road-light rail line proposed for Jakarta was put on hold before the crash,
but is certain to be dead in the water now.  Toll roads, normally pretty
lucrative,  appear to have been pretty hard hit because they have some
foreign currency borrowing but all their revenues are in domestic currency,
so they were badly hit by the change in the exchange rate.

Borrowing for public sector roads from the World Bank, ADB, and JICA is not
slowing down, however; rather, it is increasing.  Previously the Indonesian
govt share had to be something like 50%, now it only has to be something
like 25%.  This is because these loans are being used to channel foreign
exchange to the Govt to repay its suddenly dramatically increased foreign
debt.

Of course, this begs the question as to whether the over $8 billion in
foreign borrowing for roads in the last couple decades didn't partially 
lead
to the debt crisis, since there is no reason these roads increase govt
revenue sufficiently to cover the debt.  Most experts clain the indonesian
bad debt is mostly in private hands.

In Jakarta, most people are dependent on public transit, a lot of which is
in private hands.  No question they are going to be hit by increased oil
prices. Food prices etc. are also rising.  Many believe there would be 
riots
in Jakarta already if it weren't the middle of Ramadan, soon followed by
Idul Fitri.

Maybe this is a strategic opportunity to push for non-motorized solutions.
Even the govt might be willing to back dramatic increases in bike use, 
since
it would reduce the burden of increased oil prices.  Cuba went for the bike
for this reason.

Official hostility to the becak does not seem to extend to the bicycle.

Maybe there is a similar opening elsewhere in Asia for this reason?

Best,
Walter

________________________________________________________________________  
________

	The Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP)
	115 West 30th Street,  Suite 1205
	New York, NY 10001
	Tel 212-629 8001, Fax 212-629 8033
	mobility at igc.apc.org




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