[sustran] [long] Re: Ed Hillsman's Post.

obwon ob110ob at IDT.NET
Fri May 16 03:53:56 JST 1997


Ed Hillsman wrote:
 [...}

    First let me say in replying that I enjoyed reading your post very
much.  Holistically (I am not a transp. professional) you make very good
sense and your ideas are ( I feel) very likely to establish new
conventions.  Having said that, it is my thought that there is a facet
of your 'developmental trip reduction' scenario that should recieve some
attention as well.

   You are quite right in noting that the emergence of electronic media
devices, is a growing alternative to the trips that are being
taken/would be taken.  But apart from any 'loose drifting' towards these
'desirable goals', there is a significant amount of economic pressure
that is driving the process.  

  Much like your budget for food, clothing, rent and the like, there is
a component that is composed of the little things (like postage,
envelopes and time) that are often left out.  If one were to construct a
more detailed household budget then a startling thing becomes clear.  We
have a limited amount of time in a month with which to accomplish each
task associated with the processes of living.  As we review this CBP
(comprehisive budget plan) we will note that a simple task, like mailing
or banking, actually consumes inordinate amounts of time an materials on
a regular basis.  Especially when viewed against the electronic
alternatives under developement.

   So that a trip to the bank to cash or deposit a check can actually
consume a significant percentage of resources when time is included in
the CBP. If the trip must involve car travel or immediate payments for
public transit access, then the cost only rise higher than what might be
obviously thought.  How much time is associated with shopping, add
transportation and time costs to that and you will begin to see the
pressures that mitigate against such trips.  

   Of course there was a time, when there were limited avenues of energy
expenditure for each person.  No t.v. meant that there was no time
needed to view entertaining or educational programs.  A simpler economy
meant as well that there was often more time unfilled for which
diversion had to be devised.  This was in part because the limits on the
ability to travel forced planning to either put one in the right place
at the right time, or abandon a task until later, thus leaving one will
unassigned time.

  These subtle barriers are coming down with our ability to travel more
quickly and convieniently over larger distances.  So there comes with
this progress less need to create diversion by way of having greater
access to places where a wider variety of tasks can be performed.  Which
of course brings us to the matter that we also have much more to do. 
T.V. programs which once were only entertaining are now educational as
well.  Therefore the importance of watching T.V. (for some programing)
has become almost a necessity, where it was once a luxury.

  Then there's the internet, but even before we get to that, there are
lots of new products that also require some of our time and attention to
use.  So our more modern days are filling up quite near their capacity. 
This then brings us to the business side of the coin.  In the business
world time equals money because business pays salaries and  has expenses
which drives the equation  ( fx|  The longer the task takes the more it
will cost.)  

  In the business world time, and it's limited availablity over any
given period, creates huge pressures to efficiently complete tasks. 
This is the real reason in part for the internets explosive growth in
the commercial sector.  Printing, advertising, disemination of
information, data transferal, information transferal and many more
business components generate many direct and indirect trips.  The one
least tolerable component of all of this travel (and transport) is
time.  The internet has the capacity to eliminate much of the loss in
this area.  

  So that the pressure can be seen more clearly take a simple look at a
business meeting plan which will involve 4 or 5 people.  Each person is
required to devote man-hours to get to the meeting and return, unless
the meeting can be combined with other functions. Often it cannot, as
say with sales people, where they are either out in the field selling or
traveling to the next sales prospect or in the home office waiting for
the meeting to begin.  

  Then too lets look at the materials involved in business over all. 
Paper, paper everywhere and more coming in all the time.  This paper
generates trips obviously, sales trip to sell it, worker trips to make
it, trips to cut logs, on and on.  Each email message saves lots of
trips and reduces the need for resources by large amounts opposed to if
that message when by regular mail.  

  Then there are the economic pressures on business that derive from
maintaining the work place.  There are rents, leases, commissions,
construction and a hundred other expenses including maintenence.  These
expenses are being reduce as we assign more tasks to telecommuters and
homeworkers.  Each person who can work from home, relieves his business
of the need to obtain and maintain several square feet of office or
other space.  With this the companies heating and cooling costs go down,
giving such companies more capital to direct towards their primary
tasks.  Since this competitive edge can mean the difference between
overall success or failure, we can expect that many more businesses will
access the internet quickly.

   In fact the pressures to cut costs are so great upon businesses they
are looking forward to the day when they can conduct business almost
entirely this way.  That day is fast approaching!  Already computer
assisted remotely controlled devices are allowing people to remotely log
into the work place and accomplish tasks.  This means that travel
budgets and our old friend time are reduced.

  But then the significant point that you make Ed, that travel acts more
like a gas, tends to kick in here as well.  As we have the resources to
save trips, we will have more desire to make trips as well.  Only the
purposes of the trips change, but I suspect that they will be longer in
duration since, entertainment and visiting trips are usually the longest
trips anyway ie. many hours or days at visiting, vacationing,
sightseeing etc.  As well as the fact that with laptop computers, much
work can still be attended to from almost any location.

  But, being aware of the particularly sedentiary lifestyle that can and
will likely emerge from this progress, and knowing the almost
pharmacological health benefits of exercise.  I find in quite
appropriate to propose that we work to diminish the use of cars in
recreational, historic and local districts first.  This should be done
by offering hpv's as alternative means of traversing the short distances
involved.  In suitable neighborhoods etc., the pairing of exercise with
the short trips required provides a benefit to all, since we would lower
the demands that would be made on the health care systems. 

  In closing, you can see that I've omitted much detail, hoping that
your familiarity can fill in the missing peices.  In the differences
between the past and the present we can get a glimse of the future.  The
same economic pressures which have driven us this far, I daresay, will
drive us yet further again.

  Obwon




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