[sustran] zegras-cox et.al.

[Institute for Transportation and Development Policy]

Re: the debate of private viability and public transit,

My research indicates that in the long run the level of public transit
ridership is more substantially affected by the level of investment into
public transit (whether it be buses or subways) than by the current level of
subsidy.  Recent decisions as in New York to increase fares to ensure
ongoing investment into the system, moving the system closer to being
self-financing, has not led to a significant decline in transit ridership
(subway ridership increased anyway), and allowed the system to continue to
modernize (which is much more important to the system's long term cost
competitiveness.)  Substantial levels of public investment today should make
it possible to control costs in the future such that profitability becomes
possible.  High subsidies and high levels of public investment is the best
for ridership, but low fares and disinvestment into the system is more
typical of public systems, part. those in fiscal distress, and this is the
worst for ridership.

I think the privatization debate needs to move beyond looking at short term
subsidies and look rather at the effect a proposed privatization or
'commercialization' will have on aggregate investment into public transit.
Similarly with metro-bus debates, if the metro doesnt divert funds from
ordinary bus operations, its less problematic, but in fact it generally
does.  These issues will vary  on a case by case basis.

Rgds,
walter hook
itdp


NEW ADDRESS !!!!  NEW ADDRESS !!!!  NEW ADDRESS !!!! NEW ADDRESS !!!!

        The Institute for Transportation and Development Policy (ITDP)
        115 West 30th Street,  Suite 1205
        New York, NY 10001
        Tel 212-629 8001, Fax 212-629 8033
        mobility at igc.apc.org

NEW ADDRESS !!!!  NEW ADDRESS !!!!  NEW ADDRESS !!!!  NEW ADDRESS !!!!